Tantra Analyst

Why the iPhone Will Trail in 5G

After almost a week’s worth of coverage of new Apple iPhone Xs, there was very little discussion on the cellular connectivity of these handsets. Probably, Apple is quite happy about this non-coverage as well, as they didn’t have anything to show off. 

During the launch event, “Gigabit-class LTE” was flashed on the screen and was gone before anybody could notice it. It was a letdown for many wireless buffs like me. For the people in the know, this is not new.

While the iPhone Xs was announced in Cupertino, the who’s who of the smartphone and wireless world were screaming at the top of their lungs about 5G at the Mobile World Congress Americas event in Los Angeles. Verizon announced its 5G home residential broadband service, albeit using its proprietary specification called as 5GTF.

Both Verizon and AT&T, along with Ericsson and Qualcomm, announced their first 5G calls on their respective millimeter wave (mmwave) commercial networks using smartphone form factor devices. Verizon and Nokia announced a first call on their systems a few days earlier.

Apple arguably sets the smartphone trends, even when it is something annoying like the notch at the top edge of the phone. However, Apple has historically been lagging almost everybody in supporting the latest cellular technologies. They were late with 3G, late with 4G, late with 4G Gigabit and they definitely will be late with 5G.

Apple’s attempt to downplay cellular on the iPhone Xs makes me think the phones will not offer the full Gbit/second speed. The first gigabit-class smartphones were introduced in 2017, more than a year ago. Ever since, Android OEMs have upgraded to 1.2 Gbits/s in their latest flagships, and the premium phones that they will ship in early in 2019 will have 2-Gbits/s LTE.  Today gigabit-class is table stakes for many mid- and low-tier phones.

So, when the shiny new iPhone Xs handsets come out in the next couple of weeks, their data speeds will be far lower than almost any major flagship Android phone.  It would be interesting to see the response of iPhone Xs owners who have paid as high as $1,450 when they find out that older phones are much faster and even cheaper than their new phone.

This situation is not new. Apple has been falling behind its peers in wireless performance ever since they ditched Qualcomm as a single-source modem supplier and brought on Intel. However, customer reaction has been muted and has not affected brand loyalty.

Moving away from the iOS ecosystem is not easy, but differences will grow when the Android smartphones move to 5G and 2-Gbits/s LTE next year. They will be even more glaring given about 100 operators in more than 50 countries are investing in Gigabit LTE, according to the Global Suppliers Association and all major global operators are planning 5G networks.

About 20 OEMs are working with the Qualcomm X50 modem for their first 5G devices. Samsung and LG announced their plans for their 5G phones, even fast follower OEMs in China such as Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo as well as Huawei have publicly talked about 5G smartphone plans. Come early 2019, you will be swimming in the sea of 5G-capable phones. Apple will be the only holdout.

Because of its yearly cadence, Apple has to pick its modems 12-14 months before handsets come to market. So, modem choices are nearly locked in for the iPhones coming in 2019.

There are four major vendors of 5G modems–Qualcomm, Intel, Samsung, and Huawei.  Only Qualcomm and Intel are merchant vendors that Apple could buy from.

Intel’s recent 5G announcement with Ericsson gives a clear indication that they are nowhere close to getting to a smartphone form factor. Qualcomm modems are available now, however, because of an ongoing legal tussle Apple is not likely to include them in their design. So, it’s reasonable to expect that a 5G iPhone will not happen in 2019.

There have been rumors Apple may design its own 5G modem. If true, that will change the dynamics quite a lot. However, with the complexity of developments and testing involved in making a new modem, I doubt they would be ready for 2019 iPhones.

I expect a 5G iPhone will not ship until late 2020. By that time, others will be on their second generation 5G devices.